Where Christiano disagrees with Yudkowsky
7 minute read
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Summary of (part of) https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/CoZhXrhpQxpy9xw9y/where-i-agree-and-disagree-with-eliezer.
- We will be able to test many things out before the first critical try.
- We’ll get superhuman (and extremely useful) systems before we get nanotech.
- AI systems that hide their true capabilities will get weeded out by SGD.
- Self-improvement is just human-led R&D; AI will be slow at improving themselves at first.
- Intermediate AIs can reduce risks too (e.g. by consuming “free energy”).
- Pivotal acts are super dangerous and toxic; policy is more promising and reasonable.
- Intermediate AIs will be equally useful for AI capabilities and alignment.
- Eliezer is too sloppy about generalization, convergent incentives, consequentialism.
- Intelligence increase might be gradual.
- Takeoff speeds will not be that fast, threshold not that hard.
- MIRI failing doesn’t mean the problem is impossible.
- Eliezer doesn’t understand how scientific progress happens.
- Eliezer is strawmanning alignment strategies.
- Eliezer is strawmanning interpretability.
- Big tasks are made of smaller tasks with good feedback loops.
- We’ll be able to study deceptive alignment in advance.
- The list isn’t engaging with our most serious alignment hopes.
- Natural selection is a bad analogy because we deliberately shape ML training.
- We could probably verify plans for pivotal acts: it’s easier to verify than to find.
- AIs will be able to imitate human thoughts just fine.
- If any of our hopes work out, we win.
- AIs might be very human-like, especially in early superhuman stages.
- Coordination between AIs won’t be that easy in early stages because they’ll be messy.
- Eliezer misunderstands the checks and balances proposal.
- AIs might find pivotal acts before they’re superhuman at persuasion.
- We might succeed without a clear plan.
- Eliezer isn’t the only person meaningfully contributing to AI safety research.
Overall themes
- Intermediate systems will exist for some time and help us diminish the risk in many ways.
- Eliezer is being too confident.
- Eliezer underestimates the potential effectiveness of alignment research.